Data from 123 survey farms that completed all of the last four cereal surveys (October 2014 and April, July and October 2015) were scaled up to the national level using the most recent Agricultural Production Statistics. As with all surveys, there is a margin of error, which needs to be considered in relation to this report. These figures reflect the position at the 10th October 2015 and there will have been changes since this time. FAR adds that the maize survey is currently underway and details will be released later this month.

Key Points at 10 October 2015 (figures have been rounded to nearest 100):

On-farm storage, of both sold and unsold grain, is up markedly on this time last year, especially for feed barley. Total sowings of cereal crops are down on last year, especially for feed barley.

Milling wheat: The estimated tonnage of unsold grain is 10,500 tonnes, which is similar to the same time last year. The estimated tonnage of sold grain that is still stored on-farm is 40,000 tonnes, which is slightly up on the tonnage at the same time last year. Overall, on-farm storage is up 11% on the same time last year. All milling wheat crops had been sown by 10 October, and the area sown is estimated to be up 26% on last season.

Feed wheat: The estimated tonnage of unsold grain is 34,000 tonnes, which is up on the same time last year, but lower than the two preceding years. The estimated tonnage of sold grain that is still stored on-farm is 101,900 tonnes, which is up on the tonnage at the same time last year, but lower than in the two preceding years (October 2012 and 2013). Overall, on-farm storage is up 37% on the same time last year.

Feed wheat crops were 99% sown by 10 October, and the area sown is estimated to be identical to last season.

Feed barley: The estimated tonnage of unsold grain is 59,000 tonnes, which is double the amount at the same time last year and the preceding year, but slightly lower than in October 2012. The estimated tonnage of sold grain that is still stored on-farm is 121,600 tonnes, which is more than double the tonnage at the same time last year, and about 40% up on the two preceding years (October 2012 and 2013). Overall, on-farm storage is up 116% on the same time last year (over double), and is also higher than in October 2012 and 2013. Feed barley crops were 77% sown by 10 October, and the area sown is estimated to be 16% down on last season.

Malting barley: The estimated tonnage of unsold grain is 8,800 tonnes, which is up on the same time in any of the last four years. The estimated tonnage of sold grain that is still stored on-farm is 17,400 tonnes, which is higher than in October 2012 and 2014, but slightly lower than in October 2013. Overall, on-farm storage is similar to what it was in October 2013, but considerably higher than in October 2012 and 2014.

Malting barley crops were 78% sown by October 10, and the area sown is estimated to be 4% down on last season.

Milling oats: The estimated tonnage of unsold grain is 400 tonnes, which is down on the same time in any of the last four years. The estimated tonnage of sold grain that is still stored on-farm is 14,600 tonnes, which is up on the same time in any of the last four years. Overall, on-farm storage is up on the same time in any of the last four years. Milling oats crops were 88% sown by 10 October, and the area sown is estimated to be 13% up on last season.

Feed oats: The estimated tonnage of unsold grain is 200 tonnes, which is similar to the same time last year, but down on the same time in any of the previous three years. The estimated tonnage of sold grain that is still stored on-farm is 2,200 tonnes, which is roughly similar to the tonnages at the same time in any of the last three years. Overall, on-farm storage is slightly up on the same time in 2012 and 2014, but much lower than in 2011 and 2013. Feed oats crops were 70% sown by October 10, and the area sown is estimated to be 18% up on last season.

Overall: As a total over all six crops, estimated unsold tonnage of wheat, barley and oats (112,700 t in total) was up by 71% compared to the same time last year, while estimated tonnage sold but still stored on-farm (297,600 t in total) was up by 61%. This meant that the total tonnage on-farm on 10 October 2015 (410,300 t in total) was estimated to be up by 64% on the amount on October 10, 2014. The total on-farm storage was made up of 180,500 tonnes of feed barley, 135,900 tonnes of feed wheat, 50,500 tonnes of milling wheat, 26,100 tonnes of malting barley, 15,000 tonnes of milling oats and 2,300 tonnes of feed oats.

The area sown plus, intended to be sown in wheat, barley or oats, as at 10 October 2015, was estimated to be down 5,200 ha, or 4%, on the area harvested in 2015. This decrease was due to an 8,600 ha (16%) drop in sowings and intentions for feed barley, partly offset by increases in areas of milling wheat, milling oats and feed oats.