Data from 137 survey farms were scaled up to the national level using the most recent Agricultural Production Statistics. FAR suggests, as with all surveys, there is a margin of error, which needs to be considered in relation to this report. These figures reflect the position at the 1st April 2016 and there will have been changes since this time.

Key Points at 1 April 2016 (figures have been rounded to nearest 100):

Average yields were identical this season compared to last season, except for feed wheat and feed oats, for which the yields were about 10% higher this season than last season. The most notable features of this report concern feed barley, for which the 2016 harvest tonnage was estimated to be 22% down on the 2015 harvest, and for which autumn /winter sowings are predicted to be down by 47% on predicted sowings a year ago.

Milling wheat:

Estimated total tonnage (114,000 t) was up 23% compared to last year’s harvest, with all milling wheat on the survey farms harvested by 1 April 2016. Of this total, 73% has been sold (83,700 t), although most of the sold grain is still stored on farm (91%). The amount of unsold grain is 30,300 tonnes (27%). Carryover of unsold grain from the 2015 harvest was 3,200 t, taking the estimate of unsold grain in the market to approximately 33,500 tonnes which was higher than 2015 (14,300 t) and 2014 (28,800 t) but lower than 2013 (61,200 t).

Feed wheat:

Estimated total tonnage (350,600 t) including unharvested grain (1%) was up 5% compared to last year’s harvest. Of this total, 54% has been sold (188,200 t), with 85% of the sold grain still stored on farm. The amount of unsold grain is 162,400 tonnes (46%). Unsold stock carried over from last season was 11,600 tonnes, taking the estimate of total unsold grain in the market to 174,000 tonnes, compared to approximately 49,600 t in 2015, 68,100 t in 2014 and 138,700 t in 2013.

Feed barley:

Estimated total tonnage (297,700 t) including unharvested grain (4%) was down 22% compared to last year. Of this total tonnage, 52% has been sold (154,200 t), with 69% of the sold grain still stored on farm. About 48% (143,600 t) remains unsold. Carryover of unsold grain was 30,400 t, taking the estimate of total unsold grain in the market to approximately 174,000 tonnes which is higher than last season (75,400 t) and 2014 (56,300 t), but lower than 2013 (188,800 t).

For other cereals:

Compared to last year, estimated total tonnages, including unharvested grain, for malting barley (64,800 t) decreased by 9%, milling oats (18,400 t) was down by 6%, and feed oats (21,700 t) was up by 54%. Almost all (99%) of the malting barley crop tonnage had been harvested by 1 April 2016, while 36% of milling oats and 15% of feed oats were yet to be harvested. For malting barley, 9% of the total harvest was unsold, while milling oats had 11% unsold and feed oats had 8% unsold as at 1 April 2015. Unsold stocks carried over from last season were about 2,500 tonnes for malting barley and minimal for both oats crops.

Sowing intentions:

Only a few autumn/winter cereal crops had been sown by 1 April 2016. The area sown or intending to be sown in autumn/winter wheat or barley, as at 1 April 2016, was down 7% overall (or 4,500 hectares) on sowings plus intentions as at 1 April 2015.

Autumn/winter feed barley area sown is predicted to decrease by 47% (or 12,700 hectares) from 2015 to 2016, while feed wheat area sown is predicted to increase by 6% (or 2,000 hectares) and milling wheat area sown is predicted to increase by 55% (or 4,500 hectares).

Autumn/winter malting barley, milling oats and feed oats areas sown are predicted to increase by 118%, 51% and 30% respectively (or 1,700, 460 and 500 hectares respectively) from 2015 to 2016.