ABARES Executive Director, Dr Steve Hatfield-Dodds, said the forecast reduction is mainly due to lower crop production and prices. “This follows an estimated 12 percent increase in 2016–17 when our winter crops delivered exceptional yields and prices for livestock and wool were quite favourable. Despite the decline, gross value of farm production would still be higher than the average of $55 billion over the past five years.

“This forecast reduction is likely to lead to a decline of around 3 per cent in export earnings, to $47 billion in 2017-18. This is driven by forecast declines in the value of exports of wheat (down 18 percent), canola (52 percent), barley (41 percent), chickpeas (32 percent) and sugar (13 percent).

“Export earnings are forecast to increase for livestock and livestock products and also cotton and wine. “While grain prices are expected to remain low in 2017-18, prices for livestock and livestock products are expected to increase.”

The full report can be viewed at agriculture.gov​.au/ag-commodities-rep​ort-december-2017.